Market
Will diplomatic relations between France and Algeria worsen by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements or actions from the French or Algerian government indicating a deterioration in diplomatic relations
Story
French Minister Announces Arrest of Algerian Influencer Rafik Meziane on TikTok Amid Diplomatic Tensions, No Charges Filed
Jan 22, 2025, 10:41 AM
French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau announced the arrest of Algerian influencer Rafik Meziane, known as 'DJ Rafik' or '9ochiha', for allegedly inciting violence on the TikTok platform. The arrest took place amid heightened diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria, following the recent arrests of several other Algerian influencers in France for similar reasons. Retailleau emphasized the need for a firm stance against such actions, stating 'Ne rien laisser passer' (Let nothing pass). The Paris prosecutor's office, however, criticized Retailleau's announcement as 'premature', noting that no charges have been filed against Meziane at this stage and that his health condition was incompatible with custody. Meziane was released and is scheduled for a medical examination and a subsequent court appearance.
View original story
Similar markets
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Severed Diplomatic Ties • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Relations improved • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations deteriorated • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No Action • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
Sanctions on Algeria • 25%
Sanctions on France • 25%
Mutual Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Dispute • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Third-party Mediation • 25%