Market
Status of France-Iran Relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improved • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations deteriorated • 25%
Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Official announcements from the French or Iranian government, or credible international news agencies
Story
France Warns Iran: Release of Three Detained Citizens Key to Ties and Sanctions
Jan 7, 2025, 08:07 AM
The situation of three French citizens detained in Iran is deteriorating, with some being held in conditions that resemble torture, according to France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. Speaking at a conference of French ambassadors, Barrot described the conditions as 'simply unacceptable' and emphasized that the detainees have been unjustly held for several years. He warned that future bilateral relations between France and Iran, as well as the lifting of sanctions, hinge on the release of these citizens. Barrot also urged French nationals to refrain from traveling to Iran until the detained citizens are freed.
View original story
Similar markets
All three released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
None released • 25%
Some released • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations improved • 25%
Relations severed • 25%
New diplomatic agreements • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
No change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Severed Diplomatic Ties • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%