Market
How many Algerian influencers will be arrested in France by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 5 • 25%
5 to 10 • 25%
11 to 20 • 25%
More than 20 • 25%
Reports from French law enforcement or media outlets tracking the arrests
Story
French Minister Announces Arrest of Algerian Influencer Rafik Meziane on TikTok Amid Diplomatic Tensions, No Charges Filed
Jan 22, 2025, 10:41 AM
French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau announced the arrest of Algerian influencer Rafik Meziane, known as 'DJ Rafik' or '9ochiha', for allegedly inciting violence on the TikTok platform. The arrest took place amid heightened diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria, following the recent arrests of several other Algerian influencers in France for similar reasons. Retailleau emphasized the need for a firm stance against such actions, stating 'Ne rien laisser passer' (Let nothing pass). The Paris prosecutor's office, however, criticized Retailleau's announcement as 'premature', noting that no charges have been filed against Meziane at this stage and that his health condition was incompatible with custody. Meziane was released and is scheduled for a medical examination and a subsequent court appearance.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Status Quo • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Severed Diplomatic Ties • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Mutual Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Dispute • 25%
Third-party Mediation • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Escalation to international bodies • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Sanctions on France • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
No Action • 25%
Sanctions on Algeria • 25%
Less than 50 isolated • 25%
All 100 isolated • 25%
50-74 isolated • 25%
75-99 isolated • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Increased security measures in prisons • 25%
Psychiatric evaluations for inmates • 25%
