Market
Will France re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria's new leadership by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the French government or French Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Story
France and EU Send Diplomats to Re-engage with Syria's New Leadership
Dec 15, 2024, 06:45 PM
France and the European Union are set to re-engage with Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Acting French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that a French diplomatic mission, consisting of four diplomats, will visit Damascus on Tuesday, marking the first such visit in 12 years. The mission's objectives include re-establishing contact with the new Syrian leadership, assessing the humanitarian needs of the local population, and taking back possession of French diplomatic properties. This move comes after a week of upheaval in Syria, where an insurgent coalition led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overthrew Assad. Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has instructed the bloc's top diplomat for Syria to go to Damascus to communicate with the new government, emphasizing the need for a peaceful and inclusive transition. The EU's engagement aims to support a political process that ensures the rights of all Syrians and prevents the country from becoming a breeding ground for terrorism.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No official outcome • 25%
Negative with no agreements • 25%
Positive with agreements • 25%
Neutral with ongoing discussions • 25%
Full diplomatic relations established • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement only • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful asset reclamation • 25%
Establishment of diplomatic relations • 25%
Increased humanitarian aid • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%