Market
Who will control key territories in Ukraine by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Contested • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international organizations such as the UN or major news outlets
Story
Putin Open to Talks on Ukraine Based on Istanbul Agreements, Seeks Zelensky's Re-election
Dec 19, 2024, 11:56 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed readiness to engage in negotiations and compromise on the Ukraine conflict. During his annual press conference, Putin stated that Russian forces are advancing towards achieving their primary goals on the battlefield in Ukraine, taking control of territory daily. He emphasized Russia's willingness to negotiate without preconditions, but highlighted that any talks must be based on agreements reached during the Istanbul negotiations in 2022 and reflect the current realities on the ground. Putin also mentioned his openness to discuss the war with US President-elect Donald Trump, indicating a potential for compromise in future talks. Furthermore, he specified that Russia would only sign peace agreements with the legitimate leader of Ukraine, suggesting that President Volodymyr Zelensky would need to be re-elected to be considered a legitimate signatory.
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Other • 25%
Controlled by Russia • 25%
Controlled by Ukraine • 25%
Contested • 25%
Russia maintains majority control • 25%
Ukraine regains majority control • 25%
Stalemate with no majority control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
Peace agreement without security guarantees • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
No change in territorial control • 25%
Russia gains more territory • 25%
Ukraine regains all territories • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%
Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with current borders • 25%
Loss of territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Kherson • 25%
Luhansk • 25%
Zaporizhzhia • 25%
Donetsk • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
