Market
Who will be the next most wanted Mexican drug trafficker captured by U.S. by end of 2025?
3
Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes•El Mencho•Jalisco New Generation Cartel•CJNG•Mexican•Nicolás Maduro•Los Chapitos•Rafael Caro Quintero
Resolution / Starting Odds
Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, 'El Mencho' • 25%
Rafael Caro Quintero • 25%
Los Chapitos • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. Department of State or DEA announcements
Story
U.S. Raises Bounty for CJNG Leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, 'El Mencho', to $15 Million
Dec 4, 2024, 08:58 PM
The U.S. Department of State has significantly increased the bounty for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, alias 'El Mencho', the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The reward has been raised from $10 million to $15 million, making him one of the most wanted Mexican drug lords. This move places him on par with other high-profile targets like Nicolás Maduro, and above the rewards offered for Los Chapitos, the sons of Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán. The announcement comes as part of a broader initiative by the U.S. government, offering a total of $142 million in rewards for information leading to the capture of 30 Mexican drug traffickers, including Rafael Caro Quintero, for whom the U.S. offers $20 million.
View original story
Similar markets
Other cartel leader • 25%
No major leader arrested • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel leader • 25%
Local Police • 25%
Joint Operation • 25%
Military • 25%
Federal Police • 25%
Gulf Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Other • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Fragmentation into smaller groups • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Complete dissolution • 25%
Chihuahua • 25%
Sinaloa • 25%
Jalisco • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Gulf Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
El Chapo Guzmán's faction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
A new emerging faction • 25%
El Mayo Zambada's faction • 25%
Cartel leadership remains unchanged • 25%
One faction emerges dominant • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Cartel splits into multiple independent groups • 25%
Department of State • 25%
Department of Defense • 25%
CIA • 25%
Department of Homeland Security • 25%
MS-13 • 25%
Both MS-13 and Tren de Aragua • 25%
Tren de Aragua • 25%
Neither • 25%