Market
Which cartel will be responsible for the majority of fentanyl production in Mexico by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Gulf Cartel • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from law enforcement agencies or credible investigative journalism
Story
Mexican Cartels Recruit Chemistry Students for Fentanyl Production: NYT Report
Dec 1, 2024, 07:05 PM
Mexican drug cartels are recruiting university chemistry students to produce fentanyl and its precursor chemicals, according to a New York Times report. The cartels are targeting students in Mexican universities, offering them lucrative incentives to synthesize compounds necessary for fentanyl production. This marks a shift in strategy as some cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, aim to reduce reliance on precursor chemicals imported from China. These chemicals are often disguised as other goods and shipped to the United States and Mexico. The recruitment of chemistry students highlights the cartels' efforts to access specialized talent for drug manufacturing, raising concerns about the potential escalation of the fentanyl crisis.
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Sinaloa Cartel • 25%
Other • 25%
Gulf Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel • 25%
Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader • 25%
Sinaloa Cartel leader • 25%
Other cartel leader • 25%
No major leader arrested • 25%
A new emerging faction • 25%
El Mayo Zambada's faction • 25%
El Chapo Guzmán's faction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Baja California • 25%
Sinaloa • 25%
Jalisco • 25%
Rafael Caro Quintero has highest bounty • 25%
Another trafficker has highest bounty • 25%
Los Chapitos have highest bounty • 25%
'El Mencho' has highest bounty • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Opposition to U.S. initiatives • 25%
Partial cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Full cooperation with U.S. initiatives • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico • 25%
China • 25%
India • 25%
Federal Police • 25%
Military • 25%
Local Police • 25%
Joint Operation • 25%
Chihuahua • 25%
Other • 25%
Tamaulipas • 25%
Sinaloa • 25%
Launch investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
No action • 25%
Increase law enforcement • 25%