Market
Outcome of Sinaloa Cartel Internal Conflict by End of 2025
2
Sinaloa•Omar García Harfuch•Mexico•Security•Citizen Protection•Claudia Sheinbaum•Donald Trump•Sinaloa Cartel•Guasave•Ahome
Resolution / Starting Odds
One faction emerges dominant • 25%
Cartel splits into multiple independent groups • 25%
Cartel leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets and law enforcement announcements
Story
Mexico Seizes Record 1.5 Tons of Fentanyl from Sinaloa Cartel Amid US Tariff Threats
Dec 4, 2024, 04:42 PM
Mexican authorities have seized over 1.5 tons of fentanyl pills in what has been described as the largest seizure of the synthetic opioid in the country's history. The operation took place in the state of Sinaloa, where two men were arrested, and firearms were secured. The haul, equivalent to more than 20 million doses, was announced by Omar García Harfuch, Mexico's Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, and President Claudia Sheinbaum. The seizure comes amid heightened pressure from the U.S. to curb the flow of drugs across the border, following threats of tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump. The operation targeted the Sinaloa Cartel, which is currently embroiled in an internal war, and was conducted in two raids in the municipalities of Guasave and Ahome.
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Complete dissolution • 25%
Fragmentation into smaller groups • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
A new emerging faction • 25%
El Mayo Zambada's faction • 25%
El Chapo Guzmán's faction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased operations • 25%
No impact • 25%
Significant disruption • 25%
Minor impact • 25%
Increase in violence • 25%
Significant reduction in violence • 25%
No change in violence levels • 25%
Moderate reduction in violence • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%
Increased intelligence sharing • 25%
Significant joint operations • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Continued classification with additional sanctions • 25%
Reversal of classification • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Increase in operations • 25%
Decrease in political assassinations • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in political assassinations • 25%
No disruption • 25%
Significant disruption • 25%
Moderate disruption • 25%
Minor disruption • 25%
Significant disruption • 25%
Minimal disruption • 25%
Moderate disruption • 25%
No impact • 25%
Implemented without changes • 25%
Rescinded by Trump • 25%
Blocked by courts • 25%
Implemented with modifications • 25%
'El Mencho' has highest bounty • 25%
Another trafficker has highest bounty • 25%
Los Chapitos have highest bounty • 25%
Rafael Caro Quintero has highest bounty • 25%