Market
What will be TikTok's status in the U.S. on January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Under appeal • 25%
Public availability and operational status of TikTok in the U.S.
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban by January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests, Affecting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears likely to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States starting January 19, unless the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. During oral arguments, justices from both sides of the political spectrum expressed skepticism about TikTok's challenge to the law, which is based on First Amendment grounds. The justices seemed persuaded by the government's argument that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China override free speech considerations. Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted the main concern as TikTok's ownership by ByteDance, which is required to cooperate with Chinese intelligence operations. If the law is upheld, TikTok could 'go dark' on January 19, affecting its 170 million American users. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform and will be inaugurated on January 20, has requested a delay to negotiate a 'political resolution.'
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains operational • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok is sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operations without changes • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
TikTok remains operational without changes • 25%
TikTok is banned and becomes inaccessible • 25%
TikTok is sold and remains operational • 25%
TikTok voluntarily shuts down operations • 25%
Permanently shut down • 33%
Temporarily suspended • 33%
Continues operations • 33%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation with restrictions • 25%
Continues operation without restrictions • 25%
Shuts down on January 19 • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned again • 25%
Partially owned by the U.S. • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Remains unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Sold to U.S. Entity • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operations continue as is • 25%
Sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Operations banned • 25%
Resumes normal operations • 25%
Allowed to operate with restrictions • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Allowed to operate without restrictions • 25%
Banned completely • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
TikTok available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok banned in the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned • 25%
Divested • 25%
Unchanged • 25%