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What will be the turnout percentage in the 2025 Belarus presidential election?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 50% • 25%
50% to 60% • 25%
60% to 70% • 25%
Above 70% • 25%
Official election turnout data from the Central Election Commission of Belarus
Story
Lukashenko Poised for Seventh Term in Belarus Amid 30-Year Rule and Opposition Repression
Jan 25, 2025, 01:00 PM
Belarusians are set to vote in a presidential election on January 26, 2025, which is widely expected to see incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for 30 years and is now 70 years old, secure a seventh term. Lukashenko faces minimal opposition as most of his political rivals are either imprisoned or exiled. The election has been criticized by the opposition and international observers as a 'sham' due to the lack of credible competition and the ongoing repression of dissent. The European Union and other international bodies have condemned the electoral process, with the EU describing it as a 'farce' and lacking democratic legitimacy. Lukashenko's regime has intensified its crackdown on opposition and civil society since the 2020 election, with over 1,200 political prisoners currently detained, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski. In the lead-up to the election, Lukashenko has pardoned some political prisoners, possibly as a gesture to soften his image internationally. Out of 6.8 million eligible voters, 27% participated in early voting. The election is seen as a means for Lukashenko to further consolidate his power, amid a backdrop of economic challenges and increased reliance on Russia.
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Less than 50% • 25%
60% to 69.9% • 25%
50% to 59.9% • 25%
70% or more • 25%
10% to 20% • 25%
More than 20% • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
5% to 10% • 25%
Election annulled • 10%
Lukashenko wins • 70%
Other candidate wins • 10%
No clear outcome by January 31, 2025 • 10%
50% to 70% • 25%
More than 85% • 25%
70% to 85% • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
General acceptance of the results • 25%
Constitutional changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased authoritarian measures • 25%
New political opposition movements • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains in power • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Undecided by February 28, 2025 • 25%
Recognized by most countries • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
Not recognized by most countries • 25%