Market
Will mass protests occur in Belarus in response to the 2025 election results by March 31, 2025?
2
Alexander Lukashenko•Lukashenko•Valery Syrankou•Siarhei Haidukevich•Hanna Kanapatskaya•European Union
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and human rights organizations
Story
Lukashenko Secures 87.6% in Belarus Election, EU Rejects Results Amid Minimal Opposition
Jan 26, 2025, 05:19 PM
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has won the presidential election with 87.6% of the vote, according to exit polls conducted by the Belarusian Committee of Youth Organizations. The election results show Lukashenko facing minimal opposition, with other candidates receiving significantly lower percentages: Valery Syrankou at 2.7%, Siarhei Haidukevich at 1.8%, and Hanna Kanapatskaya at 1.6%. The turnout was reported at 47.56% as of 10:00 on election day. The European Union has stated it will not recognize the election results, describing them as an insult to democracy and lacking legitimacy.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Large-scale protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Small-scale protests • 25%
Government negotiation • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Escalation to violence • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
More than 20% • 25%
10% to 20% • 25%
5% to 10% • 25%
Organize mass protests • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Form a government-in-exile • 25%
Seek international support • 25%
General acceptance of the results • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
Other responses • 25%