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What will be the status of Israeli military presence in Gaza by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Re-escalation • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from the Israeli government
Story
Trump Doubts Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Starting Sunday
Jan 21, 2025, 02:21 AM
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about the sustainability of the three-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which began on Sunday. Speaking from the Oval Office on the first day of his second term, Trump stated, "I'm not confident. That's not our war, it's their war." The agreement includes a hostage exchange and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza. Trump described Gaza as a "massive demolition site" and highlighted its potential for redevelopment, citing its coastal location and favorable climate. He also suggested that the U.S. might assist in Gaza's reconstruction. Trump noted that Hamas is significantly weakened but emphasized that the group's governance of Gaza is untenable. The agreement, originally drafted during the Biden administration, is currently in its first phase.
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No withdrawal • 25%
Increase in presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
