Market
What will be the scale of public protests in Vietnam against Decree 147 by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No protests • 25%
Small scale protests • 25%
Moderate scale protests • 25%
Large scale protests • 25%
Reports from credible news organizations or human rights groups
Story
Vietnam's Decree 147 Mandates Social Media User Verification from December 25, 2024; Critics Call It 'Draconian'
Dec 25, 2024, 01:14 PM
Vietnam's new internet law, Decree 147, came into effect on December 25, 2024, mandating that social media users verify their identities. This regulation requires platforms like Facebook and TikTok to provide user data to authorities, raising concerns among critics and human rights advocates about its implications for freedom of expression. The law has been described as 'draconian' and is viewed as a means to enhance state control over online content and suppress dissent. Various organizations, including Amnesty International, have called for the withdrawal and revision of the decree, arguing that it undermines the rights of individuals to express themselves online.
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Minor Protests Occur • 25%
Mass Protests Occur • 25%
No Significant Protests • 25%
Other Outcomes • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Medium protests in 4-6 major cities • 25%
Small protests in 1-3 major cities • 25%
Large protests in more than 6 major cities • 25%
Increased support for harsh penalties • 25%
Decreased support for harsh penalties • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Large protests • 25%
Small protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
No protests • 25%
Moderate public dissatisfaction • 25%
Widespread public protests • 25%
Other public response • 25%
General public acceptance • 25%
Majority oppose death penalty • 25%
Majority support death penalty • 25%
Majority indifferent • 25%
Split opinion • 25%
Protests remain the same • 25%
Protests end completely • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Significant policy changes • 25%
No policy changes • 25%
Minor policy adjustments • 25%
Policy changes unrelated to this case • 25%
National protests • 25%
Statewide protests • 25%
Local protests only • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Government crackdown on protests • 25%
Protests subside without major changes • 25%
Protests escalate into larger political movement • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%