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What will be the level of protests in Venezuela by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain the same • 25%
Protests end completely • 25%
Reports from credible international and local media outlets
Story
Maduro Sworn In Before Assembly for Third Term Until 2031 Amid Fraud Claims
Jan 10, 2025, 03:01 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in before the National Assembly on Friday for a third six-year term, extending his rule until 2031, despite widespread accusations of electoral fraud and international condemnation. The opposition, led by Edmundo González, who claims to have won the July 28, 2024 presidential election, has presented credible evidence of vote rigging and threatened to hold a rival inauguration in Caracas. Maduro proceeded with the ceremony without releasing the electoral records that would verify his victory. "I swear that this new presidential term will be a term of peace," Maduro declared during the inauguration. Protests erupted across the country, with thousands demonstrating on the eve of the ceremony. While facing criticism both domestically and internationally, Maduro retains the support of the military and key institutions in Venezuela.
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Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
Increased repression • 25%
Dialogue with opposition • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests result in significant international sanctions • 25%
Protests are suppressed without major outcomes • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%