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Will large-scale protests occur in Iran against new morality laws by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Iran's New Morality Laws Threaten Women with Death Penalty or 15 Years in Prison for Defying Hijab
Dec 11, 2024, 12:29 PM
Iran has introduced new compulsory 'morality laws' that impose severe penalties on women who defy the country's veiling regulations. Under these laws, women could face the death penalty or up to 15 years in prison for not adhering to the compulsory hijab rules. The legislation, which takes effect this week, is part of a broader crackdown on basic freedoms, as evidenced by the #WomenLifeFreedom protests. Critics, including former Minister of Cultural Heritage Ezzatollah Zarghami, have acknowledged the widespread public rejection of these laws, noting that the majority of people do not accept or comply with the mandatory veiling regulations, and the government struggles to enforce them. The new laws also include restrictions on men's attire, prohibiting them from wearing sleepwear in public, a rule which is reportedly banned worldwide.
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Large protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
Small protests • 25%
No protests • 25%
Other Legal Developments • 25%
Relaxation of Dress Code Laws • 25%
Stricter Enforcement • 25%
No Change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Large protests in more than 6 major cities • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Small protests in 1-3 major cities • 25%
Medium protests in 4-6 major cities • 25%
Isfahan • 25%
Mazandaran • 25%
Tehran • 25%
Other • 25%
Policy changes in Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased international support • 25%
Movement suppression • 25%
