Market
What will be the impact of Truong My Lan's case on Vietnam's economic policy by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant policy changes • 25%
Minor policy adjustments • 25%
No policy changes • 25%
Policy changes unrelated to this case • 25%
Official Vietnamese government policy documents or announcements
Story
Vietnamese tycoon must repay $9bn or face execution after losing fraud appeal
Dec 3, 2024, 12:07 PM
Vietnamese property tycoon Truong My Lan, 68, has lost her appeal against the death sentence for masterminding the country's largest-ever fraud scandal, involving embezzlement and bribery charges. Convicted of embezzling $12 billion—about 3% of Vietnam's GDP—she also orchestrated a $1.2 billion bond fraud that affected thousands of investors. The Supreme People's Court of Ho Chi Minh City upheld the death sentence but stated that her life could be spared if she repays 75% of the embezzled assets, amounting to $9 billion.
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Significant negative impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
General public acceptance • 25%
Other public response • 25%
Widespread public protests • 25%
Moderate public dissatisfaction • 25%
Fails to repay and remains on death row • 25%
Repays $9 billion and sentence commuted to life • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Receives presidential pardon or clemency • 25%
Pardoned • 25%
Life imprisonment after repayment • 25%
Sentence commuted by other means • 25%
Executed • 25%
Execution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Released • 25%
Commuted to life imprisonment • 25%
Pardon granted • 34%
Commuted to life imprisonment • 33%
Execution • 33%
Majority indifferent • 25%
Majority support death penalty • 25%
Majority oppose death penalty • 25%
Split opinion • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other reforms • 25%
Death penalty abolished for economic crimes • 25%
Death penalty retained but with amendments • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation by multiple countries • 25%
Support from some countries • 25%
Condemnation by a few countries • 25%
More than $9 billion • 25%
$6 billion to $9 billion • 25%
$3 billion to $6 billion • 25%
Less than $3 billion • 25%