Market
What will be the result of the U.S. government's decision on TikTok's operational status by January 19, 2025?
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Frank McCourt•TikTok•United States•Chinese•ByteDance•McCourt•Project Liberty•China•Supreme Court•Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Conditional operation allowed • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Official government announcements and policy changes
Story
Frank McCourt, Kevin O’Leary Bid for TikTok as January 19 Ban Looms
Jan 12, 2025, 04:55 PM
Billionaire Frank McCourt and investor Kevin O’Leary have partnered to bid for TikTok’s U.S. assets, as the app faces a potential ban in the United States by January 19 unless it is divested from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. McCourt’s organization, Project Liberty, has formally submitted an offer to ByteDance, aiming to rebuild TikTok on American-designed technology without its algorithm, which is considered intellectual property by China. The bid is supported by $20 billion in verbal commitments from investors. The potential ban stems from national security concerns over the app’s ties to China, with lawmakers citing risks of espionage and covert influence operations. O’Leary and McCourt plan to prioritize user privacy and data ownership, proposing a model where users can monetize their data. TikTok has 170 million U.S. users and is valued at $30-$40 billion. The Supreme Court recently heard oral arguments on the ban, which was authorized by a law signed by President Biden last year. The court’s decision, expected before the January 19 deadline, could influence ByteDance’s decision to sell. TikTok has denied posing a security threat and opposes the forced sale, arguing it violates free speech rights.
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Other outcome • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
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TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
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Continues under ByteDance • 25%
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Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
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Operational with ByteDance • 25%