Market
What will be the primary focus of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostage release and ceasefire • 25%
Staged withdrawal and ceasefire • 25%
Economic aid and ceasefire • 25%
Other focus • 25%
Details provided in the official ceasefire agreement
Story
Ceasefire Deal Nears as Hamas Agrees to Release 33 Hostages; Biden Says Agreement "On the Brink"
Jan 13, 2025, 07:50 PM
Mediator Qatar has handed Israel and Hamas a "final" draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement designed to end the war in Gaza, following a breakthrough in talks held in Doha. The progress in negotiations comes after midnight discussions involving Israel's spy chiefs, envoys of both US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, and Qatar's prime minister. Israeli officials have confirmed that there is progress in the negotiations regarding the hostage agreement and are working intensively to complete the deal soon. Hamas has also stated that talks over some core issues for a Gaza ceasefire have made progress and are working to conclude what remains soon. Reports indicate that Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages, including women, children, and the elderly, during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. The deal may include a staged withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Mediators include Egypt and the United States alongside Qatar. US President Joe Biden said that they are "on the brink" of reaching a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
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Border security • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Immediate cessation of hostilities • 25%
Exchange of prisoners • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian aid access • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic development • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Security and demilitarization • 25%
Infrastructure rebuilding • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
International mediation requested • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire violations reported • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Economic issues • 25%
Humanitarian aid logistics • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%