Market
What will be the impact of Scott Bessent's policies on U.S. inflation by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Inflation decreases • 25%
Inflation remains stable • 25%
Inflation increases • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Inflation reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Story
Trump Nominates Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, Signaling Hawkish Economic Pivot Amid Tariff Concerns
Nov 30, 2024, 11:00 PM
Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, a move that could have significant implications for U.S.-China trade relations. Analysts suggest that Bessent's appointment may indicate a hawkish economic stance, focusing on dollar dominance, tariffs, and sanctions. This raises questions about whether the U.S. will intensify its economic coercion strategies, particularly in light of Trump's recent threats to impose additional tariffs on China. The nomination has sparked discussions about potential relief for China, despite the ongoing trade tensions. Confirmation of Bessent's appointment remains uncertain as the transition process unfolds.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Inflation decreases • 25%
Inflation remains stable • 25%
Inflation increases • 25%
Strengthened significantly • 25%
Weakened significantly • 25%
Slight changes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase by 1-3% • 25%
Increase by more than 3% • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deficit increases • 25%
Deficit remains the same • 25%
Deficit decreases by over 10% • 25%
Deficit decreases by 0-10% • 25%
Tax cuts for manufacturers • 25%
New tariffs introduced • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No major changes • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Moderate increase (0.1%-0.5% due to policy) • 25%
Decrease in inflation due to policy • 25%
Significant increase (>0.5% due to policy) • 25%
Mixed economic results • 25%
Inflation decreases • 25%
Inflation remains stable • 25%
Inflation increases • 25%
Weakens • 25%
Strengthens • 25%
Remains the same • 25%
Becomes contentious • 25%
Implementing tax cuts • 25%
Strategic tariffs • 25%
Reining in budget deficit • 25%
Reducing federal debt • 25%
Other policy focus • 25%
Financial regulation changes • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Tax reform proposal • 25%
Digital currency policy • 25%
Tax reform • 25%
Other • 25%
Financial regulation • 25%