Market
What will be the outcome of Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kursk region by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official military statements
Story
Biden Administration Approves ATACMS for Ukraine Amid Rising Tensions with Russia; Pantsir-S1 and Nebo-M Radar Targeted
Jan 2, 2025, 11:05 AM
The Biden administration has approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles for Ukraine, a move that marks a shift in U.S. policy amid rising tensions with Russia. This decision allows Ukraine to strike deep within Russian territory, potentially undermining Russian command centers and air defenses. The approval comes as Russia has lowered its nuclear threshold, indicating heightened concerns about the escalation of the conflict. Recent military actions by Ukraine have included successful HIMARS strikes on Russian air defense systems, including the Pantsir-S1, valued at approximately $15 million, and the Nebo-M radar station, which is estimated to be worth around $100 million. These developments occur as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive in the Kursk region, while Russia warns against the use of Western weaponry in the ongoing conflict.
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Ukrainian control solidified • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russian forces regain territory • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Ukraine expands control further into Kursk • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Minor Ukrainian gains • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Significant Russian counterattack • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian advance • 25%
Russian defense holds • 25%
Ukraine gains control over additional territories • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Russia regains control over all contested territories • 25%
Significant territorial gain • 25%
Territorial loss • 25%
No change • 25%
Minor territorial gain • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain control • 25%
Russian forces retain control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ukrainians gain 500 square kilometers • 25%
Ukrainians gain 200 square kilometers • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Russians reclaim 200 square kilometers • 25%
Guerrilla tactics • 25%
Encirclement • 25%
Direct assault • 25%
Diversionary tactics • 25%
