Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border by March 31, 2025?
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Turkey•Syrian•Ankara•American•Kurdish•Wall Street Journal•Turkish•Kobani•YPG•Donald Trump•Tayyip Erdogan
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military incursion into Kobani • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or CNN
Story
U.S. Officials Warn Turkey Prepares for Imminent Military Incursion into Kobani, Kurdish-Controlled Areas in Syria
Dec 17, 2024, 04:56 AM
Senior U.S. officials have expressed concerns regarding Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border, indicating that Ankara may be preparing for a significant incursion into areas controlled by American-backed Kurdish forces. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlight that Turkish forces and allied militias are amassing near Kobani, a Kurdish-dominated region. The buildup has raised alarms about a potential large-scale operation targeting the Kurdish forces, specifically the YPG, which the U.S. supports. The situation is further complicated by the presence of Turkish artillery and commandos, suggesting that an operation could be imminent. U.S. officials have urged President-elect Donald Trump to exert pressure on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reconsider any aggressive actions.
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Similar markets
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full-scale incursion • 25%
Limited military action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
No military action • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
