Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S. government review of the TikTok deal by April 30, 2025?
2
Trump•TikTok•Oracle•Microsoft•ByteDance•China•Chinese•Americans•Jeff Yass•Susquehanna International Group•General Atlantic•Kohlberg Kravis Roberts•KKR•Sequoia Capital
Resolution / Starting Odds
Approved • 33%
Rejected • 33%
Conditional Approval • 33%
Other • 1%
U.S. government announcements or press releases regarding the review outcome
Story
Trump Administration Negotiates TikTok Deal With Oracle, Microsoft; ByteDance Retains Minority Stake
Jan 26, 2025, 01:24 AM
The Trump administration is negotiating a deal to transfer control of TikTok's global operations to Oracle and potentially Microsoft, while allowing ByteDance, TikTok's China-based owner, to retain a minority stake. Under the proposed agreement, Oracle would oversee the app's algorithm, data collection, and software updates, addressing national security concerns raised by U.S. officials. The deal aims to minimize Chinese ownership of TikTok, which has been a focal point of U.S. national security discussions. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, was temporarily taken offline before a law mandating its sale or ban took effect on January 19, 2025. President Trump signed an executive order to delay the enforcement of this law, seeking to facilitate a deal. The negotiations involve current U.S. investors in ByteDance, including Jeff Yass's Susquehanna International Group, General Atlantic, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), and Sequoia Capital. TikTok's management is expected to remain in place to operate the app.
View original story
Similar markets
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
No security concerns found • 25%
Security concerns resolved • 25%
Further actions required • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast and Jesse Tinsley's group • 25%
No change in ownership • 25%
Banned with no sale • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok remains operational • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast-led group • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
No acquisition, TikTok banned • 25%
No sale occurs • 25%
Bid is extended • 25%
MrBeast's group wins bid • 25%
Another group wins bid • 25%
Change of control • 25%
Sale of U.S. operations • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Partnership with U.S. company • 25%
No action • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
Ban TikTok • 25%
Approve merger • 25%
Ban Implemented • 25%
No Decision Made • 25%
Conditional Operation Allowed • 25%
Ban Lifted • 25%
Grant permanent approval • 25%
Order shutdown • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
Grant temporary extension • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%