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What will be the outcome of Russia-Syria negotiations on military bases by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Hmeimim • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Official announcements from Russian or Syrian government sources, verified by international news agencies
Story
Russia Withdraws from Syria, Aims to Retain Hmeimim and Tartus Bases
Dec 14, 2024, 08:23 AM
Russia has begun withdrawing its military forces from various locations in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Satellite imagery and reports from Syrian officials indicate that Russian troops and heavy military equipment are being consolidated at the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and the naval base in Tartus. Despite the withdrawal, Russia has expressed intentions to maintain its strategic presence in the region, negotiating with the new Syrian authorities to retain control over these key military installations. Some assets are reportedly being relocated to Libya as Russia seeks to secure its military interests in the Eastern Mediterranean amidst the changing political landscape in Syria.
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Full retention of both bases • 25%
Retention of only one base • 25%
Loss of both bases • 25%
Indefinite negotiations • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Agreement revoked • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Agreement finalized • 25%
Permanent presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Temporary presence • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Khmeimim • 25%
Only Khmeimim retained • 25%
Both bases retained • 25%
Only Tartus retained • 25%
Neither base retained • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Controlled by other rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by HTS • 25%
Controlled by Syria • 25%
Under threat • 25%
Evacuated • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Military alliance • 25%
Short-term lease • 25%
Long-term lease • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
No agreement, negotiations abandoned • 25%