Market
What will be the outcome for Russian military bases in Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
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Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or credible news reports on the status of the bases
Story
Putin Considers Future of Russian Air Base and Naval Facility in Syria Amid New Authorities
Dec 19, 2024, 11:06 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that the future of Russian military bases in Syria, including an air base and a naval facility, will depend on the alignment of interests with the new Syrian authorities. Putin mentioned that Russia maintains relations with all political forces in Syria and with countries in the region, and that the majority of these groups have expressed interest in the continued presence of Russian military bases. However, Putin also stated that Russia needs to consider whether to keep these bases. This comes as Putin expressed hopes for peace and calm in Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, while noting that Moscow remains in contact with the current Syrian leadership.
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Closed • 25%
Remain unchanged • 25%
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Reduced • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Controlled by Syria • 25%
Evacuated • 25%
Under threat • 25%
Partially operational • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Controlled by other rebel groups • 25%
Abandoned • 25%
Controlled by HTS • 25%
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Operational and unchanged • 25%
Closed • 25%
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Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Hmeimim • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
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Retention of only one base • 25%
Full retention of both bases • 25%
Loss of both bases • 25%
Indefinite negotiations • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%