Market
What will be the outcome of Luigi Mangione's appeal if convicted by end of 2026?
3
Manhattan•Luigi Mangione•UnitedHealthcare•Brian Thompson•Alvin Bragg•Mangione•Thompson•Midtown Manhattan•Pennsylvania•New York
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conviction upheld • 25%
Conviction overturned • 25%
New trial ordered • 25%
Appeal dismissed • 25%
Court of Appeals records and announcements
Story
Grand Jury Indicts Luigi Mangione on 11 Counts, Including Terrorism-Related Murder, in CEO Brian Thompson's Killing
Dec 17, 2024, 09:22 PM
A Manhattan grand jury has indicted 26-year-old Luigi Mangione on an 11-count indictment, including first-degree murder and second-degree murder as an act of terrorism, for the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson earlier this month. The indictment, announced by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on Tuesday, includes seven counts of criminal possession of a weapon. Mangione is accused of shooting Thompson outside a Midtown Manhattan hotel on December 4. He was arrested on December 9 in Pennsylvania after a five-day manhunt and will be extradited to New York to face charges. Prosecutors allege that the murder was a premeditated act intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population under New York's anti-terrorism laws. If convicted, Mangione faces life in prison without the possibility of parole.
View original story
Similar markets
Other charges • 25%
Not convicted • 25%
First-degree murder • 25%
Second-degree murder • 25%
Guilty of all charges • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Guilty of some charges • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Convicted of first-degree murder • 25%
Convicted of lesser charge • 25%
Convicted of first-degree murder • 25%
Acquitted of all charges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Convicted of lesser charges • 25%
Convicted of first-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism • 25%
Convicted of second-degree murder as an act of terrorism • 25%
Guilty of lesser charge • 25%
Convicted of second-degree murder • 25%
Convicted of a lesser charge • 25%
Guilty of a lesser charge • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Mistrial or other outcome • 25%
Not Guilty • 33%
Convicted • 25%
Convicted of lesser charge • 25%
Convicted of murder • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Guilty • 33%
Guilty of murder • 25%
Manslaughter conviction • 25%
Guilty of second-degree murder • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Plea deal reached • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Guilty of murder • 25%
Not guilty of murder • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Guilty of lesser charge • 25%
Guilty of first-degree murder • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Other • 25%
Convicted of second-degree murder • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Convicted of Lesser Charge • 25%
Convicted of Murder • 25%
Mistrial or Hung Jury • 25%
Convicted of a lesser charge • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Guilty of a lesser charge • 25%
Guilty of second-degree murder • 25%
Life imprisonment without parole • 25%
Life imprisonment with possibility of parole • 25%
Other sentencing outcome • 25%
Fixed-term imprisonment • 25%
Convicted of some charges • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Guilty of all charges • 25%
Acquitted of all charges • 25%
Guilty of some charges • 25%
Convicted of all charges • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Plea deal for full charges • 25%
No plea deal reached • 25%
Other plea outcome • 25%
Plea deal for reduced charges • 25%
Guilty of lesser charges • 25%
Guilty of first-degree murder • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Other Verdict • 25%
Death Penalty • 25%
Guilty of a lesser charge • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Guilty of second-degree murder • 25%
Life Imprisonment • 25%
Other • 25%
Guilty of murder • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Other verdict • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not guilty of murder • 25%
Not guilty • 25%
Mistrial or hung jury • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Plea Deal • 25%
Convicted of murder • 25%
Convicted of a lesser charge • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Guilty of lesser charge • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Convicted on fake ID charges • 25%
Not convicted of any charges • 25%
Convicted on both charges • 25%
Convicted on gun charges • 25%