Market
What will be the outcome of Iran's dialogue with Syria's new leadership by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Informal cooperation agreements • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Hostile relations develop • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports detailing the outcomes
Story
After Assad's Ouster, Iran Seeks Dialogue with Syria's Rebel Leaders to Prevent Hostile Relations
Dec 9, 2024, 07:50 AM
Following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran has established direct channels to engage with some groups within Syria's rebel leadership, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters on Monday. Tehran is open to direct dialogue with the new leadership to prevent a hostile trajectory between the two countries and avoid further regional tensions. The official emphasized that engaging with Syria's rebel leaders is key to stabilizing ties and maintaining regional stability.
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No Significant Change • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Stalled Negotiations • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks stalled • 25%
Embassies reopened • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
National dialogues initiated • 25%
Inclusive government formed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
No change • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No significant diplomatic outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Increased military support for Syrian government • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
