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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran regarding flight incidents by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Iranian governments or credible international media reports
Story
Israel Threatens to Shoot Down Two Iranian Flights Over Weapons Concerns, Forces Return to Iran
Dec 7, 2024, 09:35 PM
In recent days, two flights operated by a private Iranian airline were forced to turn back while en route to Damascus after Israel issued warnings that it would shoot them down if they entered Syrian airspace. The New York Times reported that Israel expressed concerns that the flights were transferring weapons and possibly carrying troops to support the Syrian government. This incident complicates Iran's ability to mobilize forces to assist President Bashar al-Assad amid ongoing tensions in the region.
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Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Resolution passed at UN • 25%
No significant diplomatic outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Bilateral talks between Israel and Iran • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other diplomatic resolutions • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
IAEA withdraws from Ukraine • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Relations improved • 25%
New diplomatic agreements • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations severed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
None released • 25%
All three released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Some released • 25%
Formal protest by Lebanon • 25%
Mutual resolution • 25%
Formal protest by Iran • 25%
No formal diplomatic action • 25%