Market
Diplomatic outcome between Iran and Lebanon over Mahan Air by June 30, 2025?
2
Iran•Hezbollah•Mahan Air•Tehran•Beirut•Western•Iranian•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•Rafic Hariri International Airport•Lebanese
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal protest by Iran • 25%
Formal protest by Lebanon • 25%
Mutual resolution • 25%
No formal diplomatic action • 25%
Official diplomatic communications or credible news reports on diplomatic resolutions
Story
Iran Attempts to Transfer Millions to Hezbollah Via Mahan Air, Prompting Beirut Airport Inspection
Jan 3, 2025, 03:15 AM
Iran is reportedly attempting to transfer millions of dollars to Hezbollah via a Mahan Air flight from Tehran to Beirut, according to Western sources cited by Saudi Al-Hadath. The flight, operated by the sanctioned Iranian airline linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was the subject of heightened security measures at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport. Lebanese security officials conducted a thorough inspection of the plane and its passengers, suspecting it of carrying funds for Hezbollah. Amid the inspection, a diplomatic bag from the Iranian embassy, which contained documents and cash intended for embassy operations, was initially barred from entry but later allowed in following diplomatic communications. The situation led to tensions at the airport, with reports of protests by Hezbollah supporters and a state of alert being declared. Lebanese authorities have stated that any suspicious funds found on the plane would be confiscated by the state.
View original story
Similar markets
Hezbollah • 25%
Other international entity • 25%
Lebanese government • 25%
Iranian government • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Ban on certain flights • 25%
Increased inspections • 25%
Diplomatic discussions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Funds confiscated • 25%
Funds returned • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Bilateral Talks • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
UN Resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Escalation of military tensions • 25%
Diplomatic resolution between Israel and Iran • 25%
EU diplomatic efforts • 25%
US sanctions • 25%
No international response • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks stalled • 25%
Embassies reopened • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%