Market
What will be the outcome of Bashar al-Assad's arrest warrant by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Extradited to France • 25%
Arrested in another country • 25%
Remains at large • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the French government or reputable news agencies
Story
France Issues Second Arrest Warrant Against Assad for 2017 Deraa Bombing
Jan 21, 2025, 08:33 PM
Two French investigating magistrates have issued an arrest warrant against ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for suspected complicity in war crimes. The warrant, issued on January 20, 2025, relates to Assad's alleged role in a 2017 bombing in the Syrian city of Deraa that killed a Franco-Syrian civilian, Salah Abou Nabout. This marks the second arrest warrant issued by French judicial authorities against Assad, following a previous warrant in November 2023 related to chemical attacks in 2013. Assad, who was ousted in late 2024, is accused of ordering and providing the means for the attack as the 'commander-in-chief of the armed forces.' French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot emphasized the need for justice, stating that the crimes witnessed at Sednaya Prison must not go unpunished and that France will continue to mobilize for justice for Syrians.
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Convicted • 25%
Other • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
No trial • 25%
No additional countries • 25%
France and one other country • 25%
France and two or more other countries • 25%
France only • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
Remains in Russia • 25%
Returns to Power • 25%
Other • 25%
Arrested/Detained • 25%
Remains in Exile • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to Syria • 25%
Captured • 25%
Support from EU countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation from Russia • 25%
Support from non-EU countries • 25%
Other • 25%
Returns to Syria • 25%
Remains in Russia • 25%
Extradited to a third country • 25%
Natural illness • 25%
Accidental poisoning • 25%
Inconclusive/No finding • 25%
Confirmed assassination attempt • 25%
