Market
What will be the outcome of the investigation into Bashar al-Assad's alleged poisoning by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed assassination attempt • 25%
Accidental poisoning • 25%
Natural illness • 25%
Inconclusive/No finding • 25%
Official reports from involved investigative bodies or credible international news agencies
Story
Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Allegedly Poisoned in Moscow While in Exile Under Putin's Protection
Jan 2, 2025, 04:04 PM
Reports have emerged alleging an assassination attempt on Bashar al-Assad, the former president of Syria, who has been living in exile in Moscow under the protection of Russian President Vladimir Putin since his ousting on December 8 of the previous year. According to unverified claims from a Russian Telegram channel, General SVR, Assad, aged 59, fell ill on Sunday, experiencing severe symptoms including violent coughing and choking. He reportedly sought medical assistance, and tests later confirmed the presence of poison in his system. Assad received treatment in his apartment, and his condition was said to have stabilized by Monday. No official confirmation or further details have been provided by Russian authorities regarding the incident.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Unknown/Other • 25%
No responsible party identified • 25%
Russian government • 25%
Syrian opposition • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Internal Russian entity • 25%
Foreign government • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
No trial • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Confirms chemical weapon use • 25%
Denies chemical weapon use • 25%
No new investigation • 25%
Case dismissed due to mental health • 25%
Conviction for attempted murder • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significantly worsened • 25%
Improved • 25%
No change • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Assad family members charged • 25%
Assad family members cleared • 25%
Other outcome • 25%