Market
Fate of Bashar al-Assad by Dec 31, 2025?
4
Sergei Ryabkov•Syrian•Russia•Russian•Assad•Libya•Muammar Gaddafi•Turkish•Ryabkov•International Criminal Court•Vladimir Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Returns to Syria • 25%
Remains in Russia • 25%
Extradited to a third country • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements
Story
Russia Confirms Assad in Moscow After Evacuation Amid HTS-Led Rebel Advances
Dec 11, 2024, 09:55 AM
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirmed that ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in Russia. Sources indicate that Russian intelligence agents organized Assad's evacuation after persuading him he would lose the fight against rapidly advancing rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Fearing a fate similar to Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, Assad was transported via a Russian airbase on December 10, with the aircraft's transponder turned off and avoiding Turkish airspace to prevent detection. Ryabkov stated that Assad is safe and Russia will not hand him over for trial, noting that Russia is not a party to the International Criminal Court. President Vladimir Putin is reportedly demanding explanations from Russia's intelligence services about their failure to detect the growing threat to Assad's regime earlier.
View original story
Similar markets
Remains in Exile • 25%
Returns to Power • 25%
Arrested/Detained • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains in Russia • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to Syria • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Captured • 25%
Resigned voluntarily • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Exiled • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
In Russia under asylum • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Transition of Power • 25%
Stable • 25%
Under Siege • 25%
Collapsed • 25%
Confirmed alive and well • 25%
Confirmed injured • 25%
Confirmed deceased • 25%
Status remains unconfirmed • 25%
Still in power • 25%
Deceased • 25%
Ousted • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Civil war intensifies • 25%
Regime change without Assad stepping down • 25%
Assad steps down • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
In exile • 25%
Overthrown • 25%
Still in power • 25%