Market
What will be the main focus of the international response to Assad's arrest warrant by the end of 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts or reports from reputable news agencies
Story
France Issues Second Arrest Warrant Against Assad for 2017 Deraa Bombing
Jan 21, 2025, 08:33 PM
Two French investigating magistrates have issued an arrest warrant against ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for suspected complicity in war crimes. The warrant, issued on January 20, 2025, relates to Assad's alleged role in a 2017 bombing in the Syrian city of Deraa that killed a Franco-Syrian civilian, Salah Abou Nabout. This marks the second arrest warrant issued by French judicial authorities against Assad, following a previous warrant in November 2023 related to chemical attacks in 2013. Assad, who was ousted in late 2024, is accused of ordering and providing the means for the attack as the 'commander-in-chief of the armed forces.' French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot emphasized the need for justice, stating that the crimes witnessed at Sednaya Prison must not go unpunished and that France will continue to mobilize for justice for Syrians.
View original story
Similar markets
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions on Syria • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Support from non-EU countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation from Russia • 25%
Support from EU countries • 25%
Other • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Support for government in exile • 25%
Sanctions against Syria • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
General support • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
U.S. rejects offer • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. supports Assad • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic intervention • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
France and one other country • 25%
France and two or more other countries • 25%
No additional countries • 25%
France only • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Calls for peace • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Russia • 25%