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What will be the outcome of a major Russian offensive in Kursk by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete Russian victory • 25%
Partial Russian victory • 25%
Ukrainian defense holds • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear outcome • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or official military announcements
Story
Ukraine Risks Losing Kursk Territory to Russian and North Korean Forces Within Months
Dec 27, 2024, 06:43 PM
Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat from Russia's Kursk region by spring, according to U.S. officials cited by Bloomberg. The officials warn that Ukraine risks losing all the territory it seized in the region within months, potentially undermining its leverage in future ceasefire negotiations with Russia. Ukraine currently controls less than half of the territory it initially gained in Kursk, and is bracing for a Russian counteroffensive that may involve North Korean troops. The looming threat of a more concerted effort by Moscow to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk is expected as early as January.
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Russia regains full control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine maintains control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ukraine gains significant territory • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Retreat • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Ukraine expands control further into Kursk • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Minor Ukrainian gains • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant Russian counterattack • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Russia regains all lost territory • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Ukrainian control solidified • 25%
Russian forces regain territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukrainian advance • 25%
Russian defense holds • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain control • 25%
Russian forces retain control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No change • 25%
Minor territorial gain • 25%
Significant territorial gain • 25%
Territorial loss • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Russia regains control over all contested territories • 25%
Ukraine gains control over additional territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ukraine gains control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stalemate • 25%