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What will be the outcome for Sudan's military leadership by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership change • 25%
Increased military control • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
News reports and official announcements from Sudan
Story
U.S. Officials Confirm Sudan's Military Used Chemical Weapons at Least Twice Against RSF, Sanctions Expected
Jan 16, 2025, 04:18 PM
The United States has determined that Sudan's military has employed chemical weapons in its ongoing conflict against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. U.S. officials confirmed that these chemical weapons were used on at least two occasions. In response to these findings, sanctions against the Sudanese military chief are anticipated. This development highlights the severity of the conflict in Sudan, where the military is engaged in intense fighting with the RSF.
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Sanctions lifted • 25%
Sanctions imposed but ineffective • 25%
Sanctions imposed and effective • 25%
Sanctions not imposed • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Arrest warrant issued • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Proceedings ongoing • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Military victory • 25%
RSF victory • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Leadership dissolved • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
New coalition government formed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Sudanese Army Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
RSF Victory • 25%
Removed by force • 25%
Remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Peaceful transition of power • 25%
Al-Burhan remains in power • 25%
Al-Burhan steps down • 25%