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What will be General al-Burhan's position by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains in power • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Removed by force • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Sudanese government or credible news outlets
Story
U.S. Officials Confirm Sudan's Military Used Chemical Weapons at Least Twice Against RSF, Authorized by General al-Burhan
Jan 16, 2025, 04:55 PM
The United States has determined that Sudan's military has used chemical weapons at least twice against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) during ongoing conflicts. This assessment, confirmed by four senior U.S. officials, indicates that the chemical weapons were deployed in recent battles as the military fights for control of the country. The specifics regarding the type of chemical weapons used remain unclear, as knowledge of the program is reportedly confined to a small group within the Sudanese military. U.S. officials noted that General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan authorized the use of these weapons. In response to these findings, sanctions against the Sudanese military chief are anticipated.
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Sanctions not imposed • 25%
Sanctions imposed and effective • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
Sanctions imposed but ineffective • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Increased military control • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Leadership dissolved • 25%
Political Reforms • 25%
Economic Reforms • 25%
Security and Stability • 25%
Social Services • 25%
Other • 25%
Mahamat Idriss Deby • 25%
Successor from Patriotic Salvation Movement • 25%
Opposition Leader • 25%
Economic reform • 25%
Security and defense • 25%
Refugee reintegration • 25%
Political restructuring • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
RSF Victory • 25%
Sudanese Army Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%