Market
What will be the next major scientific discovery related to COVID-19 origins by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Animal origin confirmed • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
New hypothesis emerges • 25%
No new discovery • 25%
publications in major scientific journals or WHO announcements
Story
On Pandemic's 5th Anniversary, WHO Calls China's Cooperation a "Moral Imperative" in COVID-19 Origins
Dec 30, 2024, 06:03 PM
Five years after the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, the World Health Organization (WHO) has renewed its call for China to share data and cooperate in understanding the virus's origins, deeming it a "moral and scientific imperative." On December 30, 2019, Wuhan doctors Dr. Li Wenliang and Dr. Ai Fen raised alarms about a cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a SARS-related coronavirus. Dr. Li, who was later reprimanded by authorities and tragically died 39 days after his warning, had alerted colleagues via WeChat. Since the first cases were reported to the WHO on December 31, 2019, COVID-19 has resulted in over 777 million infections and 7 million deaths worldwide. The WHO continues to urge China for transparency to comprehend how the pandemic began.
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Launch new investigation • 25%
Issue new guidelines • 25%
End current investigations • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
No such study published • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
Laboratory-related incident • 25%
Natural spillover • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No new significant findings • 25%
Further research required • 25%
New evidence supports lab origin • 25%
New evidence supports natural origin • 25%
Other theory • 25%
Combination of both • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Zoonotic transmission confirmed • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
No new findings • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
Calls for more research • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
Environmental samples • 25%
Other • 25%
Laboratory data • 25%
Animal market data • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
Natural origin • 33%
Inconclusive • 34%
Lab origin • 33%