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What will be the most likely origin theory for Covid-19 according to scientific consensus by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Natural spillover • 25%
Laboratory-related incident • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Other • 25%
Consensus reports from major scientific bodies or publications
Story
WHO Urges China to Share Covid-19 Origins Data, Citing Moral and Scientific Imperative, Five Years After Pandemic Start
Dec 30, 2024, 08:13 PM
The World Health Organization (WHO) has urged China to share data and provide access to information about the origins of Covid-19, marking five years since the start of the global pandemic. The WHO emphasized that understanding the origins of the virus is both a moral and scientific imperative, crucial for preventing and preparing for future epidemics and pandemics. The organization recalled that on December 31, 2019, its office in China was informed of cases of 'viral pneumonia' in Wuhan, which later evolved into the Covid-19 pandemic that has significantly impacted global health and economies.
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Combination of both • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Other theory • 25%
Zoonotic transmission confirmed • 25%
Animal origin confirmed • 25%
No new discovery • 25%
New hypothesis emerges • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
Natural origin • 33%
Inconclusive • 34%
Lab origin • 33%
Inconclusive • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
No such study published • 25%
Confirmed natural origin • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirmed lab leak • 25%
Laboratory data • 25%
Other • 25%
Animal market data • 25%
Environmental samples • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
Calls for more research • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No new findings • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
New evidence supports natural origin • 25%
New evidence supports lab origin • 25%
No new significant findings • 25%
Further research required • 25%
Issue new guidelines • 25%
End current investigations • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Launch new investigation • 25%