Market
Will PLA morale and readiness be significantly impacted by corruption by 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from credible defense analysts or intelligence assessments
Story
Pentagon Report: Corruption Disrupts China's 2027 Military Goals Amid Rapid Nuclear Expansion to 1,000 Warheads by 2030
Dec 18, 2024, 03:09 PM
The Pentagon's annual report on China's military power reveals that corruption within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may have disrupted China's progress towards its 2027 military modernization goals. Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has led to the removal of at least 15 senior military officers and defense industry executives, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, between July and December 2023, potentially impacting the PLA's readiness and morale. Despite these challenges, the report highlights that China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear forces, increasing its operational nuclear warhead arsenal from 500 to 600 within a year. This expansion is part of a broader military buildup, which includes the addition of hundreds of new missiles to its arsenal. The Pentagon also notes that China is on track to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, indicating a significant growth in its nuclear capabilities.
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Significant Improvement • 25%
Severe Decline • 25%
Moderate Decline • 25%
No Change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
PLA Ground Force • 25%
PLA Navy • 25%
PLA Air Force • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
5-6 • 25%
More than 6 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
1-2 • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Partially Achieved • 25%
Not Achieved • 25%
Fully Achieved • 25%
Other • 25%
Miao Hua • 25%
Zhang Youxia • 25%
Xu Qiliang • 25%
Major policy overhaul • 25%
Minor procedural updates • 25%
No changes • 25%
Policy changes under consideration • 25%