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Major change in South Korea's military leadership by mid-2025 due to December 3 incident?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or defense ministry
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Former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun Indicted for Insurrection and Abuse of Power Over December 3 Martial Law Declaration
Dec 27, 2024, 06:59 AM
Former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun has been indicted on charges of insurrection and abuse of power related to his involvement in the December 3 martial law declaration. Prosecutors allege that Kim played a key role in urging President Yoon Suk Yeol to declare martial law and led military actions during the incident. His legal team has stated that Kim drafted the martial law proclamation and included a curfew clause, which was later removed at the president's instruction. They also acknowledged that Kim directed an investigation into alleged election fraud, which involved the formation of a special task force. The indictment was officially announced on December 27, 2024, with prosecutors emphasizing the gravity of the charges against Kim and mentioning the implications for President Yoon's actions during the crisis.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Cabinet reshuffle • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
President Yoon steps down • 25%
Cho Ji-ho Replaced • 25%
Neither Replaced • 25%
Both Replaced • 25%
Kim Bong-sik Replaced • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Stricter controls implemented • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other reforms • 25%
Increased military autonomy • 25%
Not Suspended • 25%
Suspended • 25%
Reinstated • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Current acting minister • 25%
Military official • 25%
Other • 25%
Political figure • 25%
Current Deputy Minister • 25%
A member of the ruling party • 25%
An opposition party member • 25%
Reforms in military leadership • 25%
Public apology • 25%
Additional indictments • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Shared leadership structure • 25%
Leadership unknown • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Current Deputy Minister • 25%
A former military officer • 25%
Candidate B • 25%
Candidate A • 25%
Other • 25%
A political figure • 25%
Candidate C • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%