Market
What will be the nature of U.S. policy shift under Trump regarding the hostage situation by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Sanctions or economic measures • 25%
No significant policy shift • 25%
Official U.S. policy announcements or credible news reports
Story
Trump Demands Immediate Hostage Release, Warns of "All Hell to Pay" if Not Freed by January 20
Dec 2, 2024, 07:30 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas, demanding the immediate release of hostages held in Gaza and calling for an end to the conflict before he takes office. In a statement on December 2, Trump declared, "Release the hostages now!" and warned, "If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume office as President of the United States, there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Reports indicate that Trump is interested in brokering a deal to secure the hostages' release before his inauguration, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy and heightened involvement in resolving the conflict.
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Military action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
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Major diplomatic role • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased border security • 25%
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Military action taken • 25%
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Sanctions imposed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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