Market
What role will the Trump administration play in the Gaza hostage situation by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major diplomatic role • 25%
Minor diplomatic role • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Statements from the Trump administration, Israeli government, or international observers
Story
Israeli President Herzog Contacts Elon Musk to Revive Gaza Hostage Negotiations Amid Trump Administration Transition
Dec 6, 2024, 03:05 PM
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has contacted Elon Musk to discuss reviving negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. The call, made at the request of the families of the hostages, aims to leverage Musk's influence as the world’s richest man to advance stalled discussions. Sources indicate that Herzog's outreach comes as the incoming Trump administration is expected to play a significant role in the negotiations. The conversation between Herzog and Musk reportedly took place in recent days, with both parties focusing on the urgency of the situation regarding the hostages.
View original story
Similar markets
Minor role • 25%
No role • 25%
Role unclear • 25%
Major role • 25%
No role • 25%
Observer • 25%
Mediator • 25%
Direct negotiator • 25%
Hostages rescued by force • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Support Trump's stance • 25%
No official response • 25%
Oppose Trump's stance • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Significant role • 25%
No role • 25%
Unclear role • 25%
Minor role • 25%
International Coalition • 25%
Hamas • 25%
U.S. Government • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Hostages released • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Mediating role • 25%
No significant role • 25%
Supportive role • 25%
Opposing role • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%