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What will be the nature of China's involvement in Myanmar by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No involvement • 25%
Economic support only • 25%
PMC deployment • 25%
Official military intervention • 25%
Analysis from credible geopolitical experts and reports from international news agencies
Story
China Weighs Military Intervention in Northern Myanmar to Safeguard BRI Projects
Dec 1, 2024, 08:38 AM
China is reportedly considering deploying private military contractors (PMCs) to Myanmar to protect its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. This move would be a significant risk for China, given the complex geopolitical situation in Myanmar, where the military junta is facing pressure from armed groups. The deployment would be in a 'private' capacity, maintaining the fiction of detachment from official military involvement. This decision comes amidst growing concerns over the security of Chinese investments in the region, with some observers speculating on potential military intervention by China in northern Myanmar.
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No Active Involvement • 25%
Diplomatic Mediation • 25%
Military Support to Russia • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supporting Russia • 25%
Leading peace efforts • 25%
Neutral mediator • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
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Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%