Scientific publications or consensus statements from major health organizations

CIA Favors Lab Leak Theory for COVID-19 Origins with Low Confidence

Jan 26, 2025, 06:41 AM

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has shifted its stance on the origins of COVID-19, now favoring the lab leak theory as the most likely explanation for the virus's emergence. This assessment, released on January 25, 2025, under the leadership of newly appointed CIA Director John Ratcliffe during Donald Trump's second term, concludes with "low confidence" that the virus likely originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, such as the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The agency's judgment is based on an analysis of existing intelligence, including the virus's spread, scientific properties, and conditions in Chinese virology labs. This marks a departure from the CIA's previous neutral position and aligns with similar conclusions by the FBI and Department of Energy. The agency emphasized that both lab-related and natural origin scenarios remain plausible due to limited evidence and China's lack of cooperation. Ratcliffe has prioritized investigating COVID-19's origins, citing its implications for U.S.-China relations and global accountability. The findings have drawn mixed reactions, with some praising the transparency and others criticizing the "low confidence" nature of the conclusion. The pandemic has caused 1.2 million deaths in the U.S. alone, and the assessment builds on a Biden-era review that was completed before Trump's administration.