Market
What consensus will the international scientific community reach on COVID-19 origin by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Publications or statements from major scientific bodies or journals
Story
CIA, Under New Director Ratcliffe, Favors Lab Leak Theory for COVID-19 Origin
Jan 25, 2025, 08:28 PM
The CIA has shifted its stance and now favors the theory that COVID-19 likely originated from a lab leak in Wuhan, China. This new assessment, released by the CIA's new Director John Ratcliffe, indicates that analysts now consider a research-related origin more probable than a natural one, although with low confidence due to limited intelligence. Officials noted that there is no new intelligence behind the agency's shift; rather, it is based on a reassessment of existing evidence. Ratcliffe, who wants the agency to 'get off the sidelines' in the debate, declassified and released the decision upon his appointment. The CIA had previously maintained that there was insufficient information to determine the origins of the pandemic.
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Natural Origins • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Lab leak theory • 25%
Other theories • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Natural emergence • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Both Equally Likely • 25%
Inconclusive • 34%
Lab origin • 33%
Natural origin • 33%
Other Conclusion • 25%
Lab Leak Confirmed • 25%
Natural Origin Confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No such study published • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Supports natural origin • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Other • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origins • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Unknown origin • 25%
Natural spillover • 25%
Laboratory-related incident • 25%
Other • 25%
Calls for more research • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Natural transmission • 25%
Lab leak • 25%
Other • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Lab leak confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural origin confirmed • 25%
Lab leak likely • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural transmission likely • 25%