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What will be the international response if Iran pursues nuclear weapons by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic efforts increased • 25%
Military action considered • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official statements from the UN, US, EU, or other major international bodies
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Sullivan Warns Weakened Iran May Seek Nuclear Weapon; Trump Proposes Talks via Oman
Dec 22, 2024, 05:48 PM
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has expressed concern that Iran may seek to develop a nuclear weapon following recent setbacks that have weakened its conventional capabilities, including Israeli attacks. Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that "it's no wonder there are voices in Iran saying, 'Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now... maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine.'" He emphasized that there is a "real risk" that Iran may change its longstanding position of not pursuing nuclear weapons. The Biden administration is briefing President-elect Donald Trump's team on the potential threat, highlighting the urgency of the situation. Meanwhile, reports from Baghdad Alyoum indicate that Trump has sent messages via Oman to Iran proposing negotiations on several issues, including Iran's nuclear program. Trump is reportedly willing to reach an agreement but may only wait a few months for a response. Sullivan expressed hope that Trump would use this opportunity to reach an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear ambitions.
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Increased sanctions • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Support by NATO • 25%
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Mixed international response • 25%
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No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
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No significant response • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
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Support by NATO • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
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Widespread support for Israel • 25%
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General support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
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Widespread condemnation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Resolution through bilateral talks with the U.S. • 25%
Resolution through a regional coalition • 25%
Resolution through UN intervention • 25%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
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Increase military drills • 25%
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Retaliatory measures • 25%