Market
How will China respond to U.S. tariffs by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese government or trade department
Story
Trump Considers 10% Tariff on China Imports Starting Feb. 1 Amid Fentanyl Crisis
Jan 21, 2025, 11:54 PM
President Donald Trump announced that his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, effective as early as Feb. 1. This decision is framed as a response to China's role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis, with Trump alleging that China is sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada, which then enters the U.S. Trump also mentioned that his team is discussing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, to be implemented on the same date, due to concerns over immigration and fentanyl trafficking. During his first term, Trump had already imposed significant tariffs on China, and he criticized the European Union and other countries for having troubling trade imbalances with the U.S.
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Similar markets
No response • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Tariffs on US goods • 25%
Non-tariff barriers • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Seek diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other Economic Measures • 25%
Negotiations • 25%
Tariff Retaliation • 25%
Currency Devaluation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
