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What will be the impact on Syrian government control post Russian withdrawal by December 31, 2025?
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Russia•Syria•Maxar Technologies•Russian•Hmeimim Air Base•Latakia•Homs•Damascus•Tartus Naval Base•Tartus•German Defense Ministry
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased control • 25%
Decreased control • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Civil unrest • 25%
Reports from international organizations and credible news outlets
Story
Russia Withdraws S-400 Systems from Syria; Satellite Images Show Evacuation at Hmeimim Air Base
Dec 13, 2024, 05:42 PM
Multiple reports on social media indicate that Russia is preparing to withdraw its military forces from Syria. Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies allegedly shows Russian transport aircraft, including An-124 cargo planes, at Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia, with equipment such as S-400 air defense systems and Ka-52 helicopters being dismantled for transport. Large Russian military convoys have been observed moving from various parts of Syria, including Homs and Damascus, towards the coast, specifically to Tartus Naval Base and Hmeimim Air Base. The Russian naval fleet has reportedly left the port of Tartus. A report from the German Defense Ministry suggests that Russia is preparing for a complete evacuation of its military bases in Syria. These movements suggest a significant reduction of Russian military presence in the country.
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Decreased government control • 25%
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