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What will be Iran's diplomatic strategy in response to the Syrian conflict by December 31, 2025?
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Iran•Syria•Quds Force•Fatemiyoun Brigade•The New York Times•Iranian•Homs•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•Quds Forces•Damascus•Iraq•Lebanon•Tehran•Assad
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
Focus on regional alliances • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Withdraw from regional involvement • 25%
Analyses from geopolitical experts and official statements from Iranian government
Story
Iran Evacuates Military, Including Quds Commanders, from Syria as Rebels Advance
Dec 7, 2024, 01:25 AM
Iran has begun evacuating its military commanders and personnel from Syria, including senior Quds Force commanders and elements of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, according to reports from The New York Times citing regional officials and three Iranian officials. The evacuation, which started on Friday, is seen as a sign of Iran's inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power amid a resurgent rebel offensive that has advanced towards key cities such as Homs and Deir al-Zour. The withdrawal includes top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Forces, IRGC personnel, some diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians. Evacuation orders were issued from the Iranian embassy in Damascus and IRGC bases. Evacuees are being transported to neighboring countries, including Iraq and Lebanon, and to Tehran via land, sea, and air routes. This development indicates Iran's assessment that it cannot effectively support Assad as Syria's army itself does not want to fight.
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Strengthened alliances with other nations • 25%
Bilateral talks with Iran • 25%
Formal complaint to UN • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Continues to support Syrian sovereignty • 25%
Shifts to a more neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposes current Syrian government • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Informal cooperation agreements • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Hostile relations develop • 25%
Trade Agreement • 25%
Cultural Exchange Program • 25%
Defense Pact • 25%
Joint Infrastructure Project • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Support or neutrality • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
