Market
What will be identified as the main factor for the Gaza ceasefire success by mid-2025?
2
Nations•Antonio Guterres•Donald Trump•Israel•Hamas•Guterres•Trump•Gaza Strip•Gaza•David Satterfield•Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump's diplomacy • 25%
Biden administration efforts • 25%
Collaborative international efforts • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Analysis from major news outlets, think tanks, or UN reports
Story
UN Chief Guterres Praises Trump's Role in Gaza Ceasefire Following 15 Months of War
Jan 22, 2025, 11:37 AM
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has commended former U.S. President Donald Trump for his substantial role in facilitating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Guterres noted that Trump's 'robust diplomacy' contributed significantly to the truce, which was established shortly before Trump's upcoming inauguration. The ceasefire comes after 15 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip. Both Guterres and former U.S. envoy for aid to Gaza, David Satterfield, acknowledged the efforts of both the Biden and Trump administrations in achieving this ceasefire, highlighting a collaborative diplomatic approach.
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Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
USA • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Other • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Both equally • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hamas remains, war ends • 25%
Hamas removed, war continues • 25%
Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
Hamas removed, war ends • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
No progress in peace talks • 25%
Moderate progress in peace talks • 25%
Significant progress in peace talks • 25%
Deterioration of peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Biden Administration • 25%
Trump Administration • 25%
Israeli Government • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%