Market
What change will occur in US policy towards HTS in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased engagement • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Official US government policy documents or statements
Story
US Diplomats Meet HTS Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus After Assad's Fall
Dec 20, 2024, 10:37 AM
Senior US diplomats, including Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, Ambassador Roger Carstens, and NEA Senior Advisor Daniel Rubinstein, have arrived in Damascus to meet with Syria's new leadership following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. This marks the first official US diplomatic visit to Syria in over a decade. The delegation met with Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group now governing the country after leading the offensive that toppled Assad’s regime. The meeting marks the first official contact between the US and HTS, which was formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda. Discussions focused on principles of political transition, security concerns, potential lifting of US sanctions, and the fate of missing Americans in Syria, including journalist Austin Tice. The US delegation is also engaging directly with the Syrian people. The meeting was described as productive by US officials.
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Military intervention • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
Policy shift • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Increased support for Turkey's stance • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increased support for Syrian groups • 25%
Maintaining current policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
Full support • 25%
No support • 25%
Conditional engagement • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%